Just over 6 months ago, I posted a piece on Irish Commercial Property wondering if there was a case to include, or add to it, in your investment portfolio. So what’s been happening? The commentary so far this year coming from property managers talks of a stabilizing or a re-set for the Irish Commercial PropertyContinue reading “Time to re-visit Property as an Asset Class?”
Tag Archives: Growth
Out of Office? Whats’s Next for Dublin Office Property?
Property investors believe (hope) that they have seen the bottom of the Irish commercial property market. And commercial property portfolios in Ireland today are still essentially driven by the performance of the office sector. I looked at the property exposure of the big institutional funds, including pension funds, and the office component of these portfoliosContinue reading “Out of Office? Whats’s Next for Dublin Office Property?”
China: More Risk than Return?
It used to be Top of Mind for investors. China was an economic power house driving global markets and commodities. Posting annual growth rates of 10% and more in the early 2000’s, the health of the Chinese economy was a critical box to tick in building a positive case for financial investors. Not any more.Continue reading “China: More Risk than Return?”
Bonds: Boring or Ballistic? Time to think again?
For many investors, bonds are a substantial part of their allocation. They are seen as a stable asset class, offering some balance with other assets and reduced volatility – generally not meant to be the “exciting” part of the portfolio. Most Balanced Managed funds here in Ireland have an allocation to fixed income. I lookedContinue reading “Bonds: Boring or Ballistic? Time to think again?”
Big Question: Has the US Consumer run out of Gas?
Maybe the single most important question for investors. Economists discuss, debate and differ over whether or not the US economy is headed for a recession. Let’s put the theories to one side, focus less on Wall Street, and look at what’s actually happening on Main Street. Just how healthy is the US consumer? This is theContinue reading “Big Question: Has the US Consumer run out of Gas?”
For investors, does China matter anymore?
The South China Morning Post is worried about a recession in China. Fortune magazine speaks of a dead-end for the Chinese economy. And Bloomberg talks of China’s economic miracle fading. Chinese consumers lack confidence and the property sector’s problems seem to be intractable. It seems a far cry from the years when China was growingContinue reading “For investors, does China matter anymore?”
Does Debt Matter?
The amount of debt that governments owe gets called out on a regular basis by commentators and analysts as one the key economic risks that we face. The IMF has been to the fore talking about the fiscal and financial risks of a high debt, slow growth world. In their view, higher long term interestContinue reading “Does Debt Matter?”
The Numbers Are Wrong!
For many investors in financial markets, economic data is crucial. The latest instalment on inflation, growth, or jobs, can have huge influence on market sentiment and market moves. Battalions of analysts and commentators pore over such numbers in the greatest of detail and then rush to publish their findings. But it seems that the onlyContinue reading “The Numbers Are Wrong!”
Are Investors too complacent today?
Stock markets around the world have hit record highs this year. In fact, markets have enjoyed a good run since end October last year – the US S&P index is up about 25% in that period. Principal driver was probably a benign view on where interest rates may go in 2024, coupled with a resilientContinue reading “Are Investors too complacent today?”
Interest rates will fall in 2024…..but when?
2024 will provide some relief for borrowers and potential borrowers as interest rates fall. But the question is how long they may have to wait, and how much should they expect, in terms of a reduction. Last night’s comments from the chief at the US Central Bank suggest we may have to wait a bitContinue reading “Interest rates will fall in 2024…..but when?”
Will Economists do any better in 2024?
Throughout 2023, the war-cry from many economists and market experts was for an imminent recession in the US. A tightening US Central Bank was going to derail consumption and investment and knock between 2 and 3% off economic growth. A stronger dollar would undermine exports. In a Wall Street Journal survey of economists at the startContinue reading “Will Economists do any better in 2024?”
Why is the US economy in better shape than Europe?
Today the European Central Bank described Europe as being fragile and vulnerable. In contrast, the US Central bank spoke of broad based strength across all categories. What are the facts? Compared to the US, Europe has higher inflation, higher unemployment, weaker stock-markets and significantly lower economic growth. And the gaps aren’t marginal – unemployment in Europe isContinue reading “Why is the US economy in better shape than Europe?”
Globalisation – is it over? Does it matter?
Talk of the end of Globalisation seems everywhere. Tanaiste Michael Martin and Ursula Von der Leyen, European Commission President, have both spoken recently about “de-risking” our trade flows. More extreme views believe that current global trade trends point to the end of Globalisation. The Peterson Institute sees Globalisation in retreat, and in its place theyContinue reading “Globalisation – is it over? Does it matter?”
US Economy 2023: The Consumer Conundrum
The US consumer seems to be on a solid footing today. Spending volumes increased in both January and February and look to be on course for a positive year overall in 2023. Spending is clearly helped by a red hot jobs market. January saw half a million new jobs created and while that pace willContinue reading “US Economy 2023: The Consumer Conundrum”
Pension Funds and the Big Question
Three Facts This year, 830 million people will go hungry. We waste 40% of food globally. Pension Funds can help. After steadily declining for a decade, world hunger is on the rise, affecting nearly 10% of people globally. Of the 830 million going hungry, 50 million are facing absolute famine. This set-back is driven largelyContinue reading “Pension Funds and the Big Question”
Will the US economy avoid a recession?
The “R” word continues to haunt our Global Economy. Europe is facing recession in 2023 as energy costs, and indeed energy availability, are threatened by the war in Ukraine. Rishi Sunak is facing a deep recession as a £40 billion gap in the UK balance sheet needs closing. Xi Jinping’s renewed commitment this week to aContinue reading “Will the US economy avoid a recession?”
What’s Moving Markets?
Just what is driving global stock-markets in 2022? A stuttering start to the year, based on fears around economic growth and rising energy prices, was followed by the Ukraine war induced decline into early March. Markets then rallied from about St. Patrick’s day to the end of March only to fall more substantially byContinue reading “What’s Moving Markets?”
The Global Food Crisis and Pension Funds
We are in a global food crisis. While food prices have eased somewhat from the highs of March April, they are still 43% higher than 2020 levels (as measured by the FAO index). Though the rise is widespread, grains have been to the fore in pushing higher. In lower income countries, where food makes upContinue reading “The Global Food Crisis and Pension Funds”
Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?
As the second quarter company earnings season closes out, it provides a good window on to what’s actually happening on the ground in the US economy.Rather than listen to the economists and analysts, we can hear what the women and men who actually run companies, and have to report to shareholders, think where we areContinue reading “Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?”
Beyond the Beaches
Every evening, as the blue of the night darkens, the Paseo Maritimo, which winds its way from Marbella to Puerto Banus along the Spanish coastline, is once again thronged with locals and tourists, Spanish and international, as they stroll before or after dinner, incessantly chatting, catching up on the news of the day. The ambience isContinue reading “Beyond the Beaches”
Tradewinds 