Most of the Market Outlook pieces I’ve seen so far in 2026 have been, to a greater or lesser extent, positive. Investment managers usually are. Sometimes the views will be somewhat nuanced, stressing volatility risks or focussing on longer term market prospects, but it would be rare for an investment outlook piece to start withContinue reading “Are Markets too Optimistic ….or are we too Pessimistic?”
Tag Archives: Forecasts
Red Flags. Are Markets Risky Now?
Maybe it’s time for investors to be careful. The latest batch of annual outlook pieces from investment managers in the main stick to the tried and tested views of being cautiously optimistic, based on lower interest rates and still positive growth in economies. I agree we are likely to see somewhat lower interest rates and reasonable growthContinue reading “Red Flags. Are Markets Risky Now?”
China: More Risk than Return?
It used to be Top of Mind for investors. China was an economic power house driving global markets and commodities. Posting annual growth rates of 10% and more in the early 2000’s, the health of the Chinese economy was a critical box to tick in building a positive case for financial investors. Not any more.Continue reading “China: More Risk than Return?”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
‘Twas the night before ChristmasSnow was falling and stars were brightThe economists were all tucked up in their bedsDreaming of all the forecasts they’d got right But off in the distance the silence was brokenWe heard glasses clink and saw lights flashThe music and mayhem could only mean one thingIt was the Central Bankers’ ChristmasContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
Bonds: Boring or Ballistic? Time to think again?
For many investors, bonds are a substantial part of their allocation. They are seen as a stable asset class, offering some balance with other assets and reduced volatility – generally not meant to be the “exciting” part of the portfolio. Most Balanced Managed funds here in Ireland have an allocation to fixed income. I lookedContinue reading “Bonds: Boring or Ballistic? Time to think again?”
Back to School! What Irish Fund Managers are saying today
2024 has been a good year so far for investors. But now, as we put away the buckets and spades and head into the home straight for the year, how do Irish investment managers see market prospects? Well, all in all, they seem to be a reasonably positive bunch. Not too concerned about recessions, expectingContinue reading “Back to School! What Irish Fund Managers are saying today”
Big Question: Has the US Consumer run out of Gas?
Maybe the single most important question for investors. Economists discuss, debate and differ over whether or not the US economy is headed for a recession. Let’s put the theories to one side, focus less on Wall Street, and look at what’s actually happening on Main Street. Just how healthy is the US consumer? This is theContinue reading “Big Question: Has the US Consumer run out of Gas?”
The Numbers Are Wrong!
For many investors in financial markets, economic data is crucial. The latest instalment on inflation, growth, or jobs, can have huge influence on market sentiment and market moves. Battalions of analysts and commentators pore over such numbers in the greatest of detail and then rush to publish their findings. But it seems that the onlyContinue reading “The Numbers Are Wrong!”
Are Investors too complacent today?
Stock markets around the world have hit record highs this year. In fact, markets have enjoyed a good run since end October last year – the US S&P index is up about 25% in that period. Principal driver was probably a benign view on where interest rates may go in 2024, coupled with a resilientContinue reading “Are Investors too complacent today?”
Interest rates will fall in 2024…..but when?
2024 will provide some relief for borrowers and potential borrowers as interest rates fall. But the question is how long they may have to wait, and how much should they expect, in terms of a reduction. Last night’s comments from the chief at the US Central Bank suggest we may have to wait a bitContinue reading “Interest rates will fall in 2024…..but when?”
Will Economists do any better in 2024?
Throughout 2023, the war-cry from many economists and market experts was for an imminent recession in the US. A tightening US Central Bank was going to derail consumption and investment and knock between 2 and 3% off economic growth. A stronger dollar would undermine exports. In a Wall Street Journal survey of economists at the startContinue reading “Will Economists do any better in 2024?”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
‘Twas the night before ChristmasAnd all the markets were closed.Dealers all snuggled up in their bedsNo asset positions left exposed. But soft in the distance, the bells rang outAnd cherubs sang hale and heartyCoz after another year of decision makingThis was the night of the Central Bankers’ Christmas Party. The biggest night for governors pastContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
Globalisation – is it over? Does it matter?
Talk of the end of Globalisation seems everywhere. Tanaiste Michael Martin and Ursula Von der Leyen, European Commission President, have both spoken recently about “de-risking” our trade flows. More extreme views believe that current global trade trends point to the end of Globalisation. The Peterson Institute sees Globalisation in retreat, and in its place theyContinue reading “Globalisation – is it over? Does it matter?”
Do Investment Models Work?
Yes – until they don’t. What I’m talking about here are the models, processes, frameworks that some investment managers may use when they are allocating across the various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, property, cash, alternatives etc. The usual building blocks of such models may include factors such as valuation, economic growth, interest rates, currencies,Continue reading “Do Investment Models Work?”
Will the US economy avoid a recession?
The “R” word continues to haunt our Global Economy. Europe is facing recession in 2023 as energy costs, and indeed energy availability, are threatened by the war in Ukraine. Rishi Sunak is facing a deep recession as a £40 billion gap in the UK balance sheet needs closing. Xi Jinping’s renewed commitment this week to aContinue reading “Will the US economy avoid a recession?”
The Global Food Crisis and Pension Funds
We are in a global food crisis. While food prices have eased somewhat from the highs of March April, they are still 43% higher than 2020 levels (as measured by the FAO index). Though the rise is widespread, grains have been to the fore in pushing higher. In lower income countries, where food makes upContinue reading “The Global Food Crisis and Pension Funds”
Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?
As the second quarter company earnings season closes out, it provides a good window on to what’s actually happening on the ground in the US economy.Rather than listen to the economists and analysts, we can hear what the women and men who actually run companies, and have to report to shareholders, think where we areContinue reading “Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?”
Beyond the Beaches
Every evening, as the blue of the night darkens, the Paseo Maritimo, which winds its way from Marbella to Puerto Banus along the Spanish coastline, is once again thronged with locals and tourists, Spanish and international, as they stroll before or after dinner, incessantly chatting, catching up on the news of the day. The ambience isContinue reading “Beyond the Beaches”
A Confluence of Calamities
It sounds like some medieval curse that the Wizard Wobegone called down upon the elves of Myrtle, in response to their kidnapping of the Princess Petrushka, but this is in fact how the IMF described the current global economic and financial market situation. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the global economy faces its biggestContinue reading “A Confluence of Calamities”
Currencies – the Next Stop for Volatility?
Volatility is on the up in asset classes like stocks and bonds, as governments and central banks around the globe look for an exit strategy from highly supportive pandemic policies. US bond volatility (as measured by the options market index) has practically doubled in the past 4 months and stock markets have been displaying heightened volatilityContinue reading “Currencies – the Next Stop for Volatility?”
Tradewinds 