It was the night before Christmas And all the stock markets were closed Fund managers finally got to rest And the Traders gently dozed No more economic forecasts to be made No more commentaries to write For all the world’s financial folk It was a truly silent night But off in the distance you couldContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party 2025”
Category Archives: Central Banks
What do Irish Investors Want?
So the Central Bank of Ireland has produced a very solid research piece providing a snapshot of what Irish investors want and where they are putting their money. Firstly it’s a lot of money! The net wealth of Irish households has more than doubled in the last decade to €1,288bn. The headline conclusions from theContinue reading “What do Irish Investors Want?”
How are Irish Investment Managers managing?
Most Investment Managers acknowledge that these are tricky times for their funds and their customers. Words like “unprecedented”, “new global order” or “seismic shift” are to the fore in managers’ commentaries. And rightly so. The risk of escalation in trade wars and real wars remains a huge threat and leaves us in an environment of likelyContinue reading “How are Irish Investment Managers managing?”
Credit Where it’s Due
There’s a lot going on at your local credit union today. Nearly 4 million of us are saving over €18bn with them, and they’re lending out over €7bn back into the local community. And there’s a lot of change within the sector. In the past 10 years or so we’ve seen the total number of unions halveContinue reading “Credit Where it’s Due”
Irish Funds: Where Are The Risks?
Last week the Central Bank of Ireland published a report on the key risks and trends shaping the financial sector. The Regulatory & Supervisory Outlook (RSO) report gives the Bank’s view on these risks and what they see as the key priorities to address them in the next two years. From this we get aContinue reading “Irish Funds: Where Are The Risks?”
Red Flags. Are Markets Risky Now?
Maybe it’s time for investors to be careful. The latest batch of annual outlook pieces from investment managers in the main stick to the tried and tested views of being cautiously optimistic, based on lower interest rates and still positive growth in economies. I agree we are likely to see somewhat lower interest rates and reasonable growthContinue reading “Red Flags. Are Markets Risky Now?”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
‘Twas the night before ChristmasSnow was falling and stars were brightThe economists were all tucked up in their bedsDreaming of all the forecasts they’d got right But off in the distance the silence was brokenWe heard glasses clink and saw lights flashThe music and mayhem could only mean one thingIt was the Central Bankers’ ChristmasContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
Bonds: Boring or Ballistic? Time to think again?
For many investors, bonds are a substantial part of their allocation. They are seen as a stable asset class, offering some balance with other assets and reduced volatility – generally not meant to be the “exciting” part of the portfolio. Most Balanced Managed funds here in Ireland have an allocation to fixed income. I lookedContinue reading “Bonds: Boring or Ballistic? Time to think again?”
For investors, does China matter anymore?
The South China Morning Post is worried about a recession in China. Fortune magazine speaks of a dead-end for the Chinese economy. And Bloomberg talks of China’s economic miracle fading. Chinese consumers lack confidence and the property sector’s problems seem to be intractable. It seems a far cry from the years when China was growingContinue reading “For investors, does China matter anymore?”
The Numbers Are Wrong!
For many investors in financial markets, economic data is crucial. The latest instalment on inflation, growth, or jobs, can have huge influence on market sentiment and market moves. Battalions of analysts and commentators pore over such numbers in the greatest of detail and then rush to publish their findings. But it seems that the onlyContinue reading “The Numbers Are Wrong!”
Interest rates will fall in 2024…..but when?
2024 will provide some relief for borrowers and potential borrowers as interest rates fall. But the question is how long they may have to wait, and how much should they expect, in terms of a reduction. Last night’s comments from the chief at the US Central Bank suggest we may have to wait a bitContinue reading “Interest rates will fall in 2024…..but when?”
Will Economists do any better in 2024?
Throughout 2023, the war-cry from many economists and market experts was for an imminent recession in the US. A tightening US Central Bank was going to derail consumption and investment and knock between 2 and 3% off economic growth. A stronger dollar would undermine exports. In a Wall Street Journal survey of economists at the startContinue reading “Will Economists do any better in 2024?”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
‘Twas the night before ChristmasAnd all the markets were closed.Dealers all snuggled up in their bedsNo asset positions left exposed. But soft in the distance, the bells rang outAnd cherubs sang hale and heartyCoz after another year of decision makingThis was the night of the Central Bankers’ Christmas Party. The biggest night for governors pastContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
Why is the US economy in better shape than Europe?
Today the European Central Bank described Europe as being fragile and vulnerable. In contrast, the US Central bank spoke of broad based strength across all categories. What are the facts? Compared to the US, Europe has higher inflation, higher unemployment, weaker stock-markets and significantly lower economic growth. And the gaps aren’t marginal – unemployment in Europe isContinue reading “Why is the US economy in better shape than Europe?”
Understanding Christine Lagarde
Central Bankers: Financial markets hang on their every word. Speeches are parsed and pored over to gain the smallest clue as to where policy may be headed. And if we’re close to a peak in interest rates, with an extended period of little change ahead of us, what Central Bankers say may matter more, thanContinue reading “Understanding Christine Lagarde”
Could there be a Chinese Credit Suisse?
The Great Wall of China dates from the 7th century BC and is over 20,000 km in length. It has had a profound military, economic and political impact on China. But at times of global financial crisis, China also seems to have had a financial “great wall” protecting it from contagion. China’s economy in the 80’s.Continue reading “Could there be a Chinese Credit Suisse?”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
It was the night before ChristmasAnd all the markets were closedAll the experts and analystsWere safely home and hosed No more forecasts for the yearNi more unprecedented eventsNo more comments from Central BanksAnd wondering what the Hell they meant But all wasn’t peaceful and quietAs the snow now began to fall hardFor oft in theContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
Sustainability Faces Headwinds
Last week, European Fund Managers down-graded nearly €50 billion worth of investment funds on grounds of sustainability. In total, nearly 10% of the premium rated sustainable funds have moved their rating down a notch since early November. And these are not peripheral players. Among the fund management groups to make these moves have been Amundi,Continue reading “Sustainability Faces Headwinds”
Will the US economy avoid a recession?
The “R” word continues to haunt our Global Economy. Europe is facing recession in 2023 as energy costs, and indeed energy availability, are threatened by the war in Ukraine. Rishi Sunak is facing a deep recession as a £40 billion gap in the UK balance sheet needs closing. Xi Jinping’s renewed commitment this week to aContinue reading “Will the US economy avoid a recession?”
What’s Moving Markets?
Just what is driving global stock-markets in 2022? A stuttering start to the year, based on fears around economic growth and rising energy prices, was followed by the Ukraine war induced decline into early March. Markets then rallied from about St. Patrick’s day to the end of March only to fall more substantially byContinue reading “What’s Moving Markets?”
Tradewinds 