The Brexit debate seems mired in dates and deadlines. Progress and attention span is incremental with every week seeming to be all important and then fading into memory. Red lines do little more than lose their colour. In Ireland it is never far from centre stage but even now fatigue and an October deadline haveContinue reading “Travelling and Arriving. Brexit Collateral Damage”
Author Archives: Eugene Kiernan
Gin and Tonic anyone?
How did we get here? Look at the graph below. It’s not about GDP or the S&P 500 or CPI – it’s more important than that. This is how much gin we have consumed in Ireland in the past six years. Total growth over that period? – about 125%! Probably doesn’t come as a completeContinue reading “Gin and Tonic anyone?”
Dad’s Army on the outlook for Global Financial Markets
Wall Street, Davos, Walmington-on-sea – all major financial centres. We checked in with the members of the local Home Guard platoon to get their views on the near-term outlook for global financial markets. Captain Mainwaring Now look here men, I can’t tell you that it’s going to be easy. On the contrary it’s going toContinue reading “Dad’s Army on the outlook for Global Financial Markets”
Fund Managers – Brave New World
2018 was a tough year for fund managers. Markets were unforgiving and saved a lot of the angst for the last month of the year. Performance suffered and what the Financial Times labels “flowmaggedon” , where we saw very hefty outflows from funds across a wide range of asset, combined to hit the P&L accountsContinue reading “Fund Managers – Brave New World”
The Next Big Thing
So there’s been a bit of a recovery in stock markets so far this year after a dismal December. It’s not very surprising and it does seem to lack conviction. The year so far has been marked mainly by official downgrades to global economic growth, accompanied at times by “Game of Thrones” rhetoric and headlinesContinue reading “The Next Big Thing”
Laundry List
We are smack bang in the middle of the “market outlook 2019” season. Despite the fact that economic and market fundamentals don’t really recognise the Gregorian calendar, economists, strategists, commentators et al, rush to give their views on what the next 12 months holds – usually conveniently forgetting what they may have said at theContinue reading “Laundry List”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
‘Twas the night before Christmas And all through the Central Bankers’ house The governors were snuggled up and fast asleep With no more interest rates left to announce The up piped young Mark Carney “This is all too quiet, I say Let’s have a Central Bankers’ party For tomorrow is Christmas Day!” SoContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
The day Mark Mobius came to Dublin
Look, it may not have been the only time, but such visits certainly aren’t that frequent. And the Emerging Markets guru did stand out in his off-white suit and encircled by his entourage. At least he made it to the city centre – one of his analysts spent his Dublin visit in the private jetContinue reading “The day Mark Mobius came to Dublin”
Are Fund Managers a cultured bunch?
What do you think? Do they know their Verdi from their Vardy?, Van Gogh from Van Morrison, or their Rigoletto from their cannelloni? Hard to know really! But this culture thing seems to be getting more and more attention. In Ireland the Central Bank has been devoting a lot of resources to this issueContinue reading “Are Fund Managers a cultured bunch?”
Money for Nothing
Funds, fees and the future So you’re an investment manager – would you work for free? – nothing, nada, zilch, zero? Fidelity grabbed headlines recently with a zero charge on fund management – granted it was for a basic index product where fees were minimal anyway and stock lending can provide the manager with anContinue reading “Money for Nothing”
Absolutely not quite so Fabulous Darlings
Sure who wouldn’t like them? Investment funds that can deliver positive returns in any kind of market conditions at a lower level of risk. That’s broadly what Absolute Return funds say they do. (Yes I know, the managers will use phases like over a reasonbable time frame, market cycles etc. but let’s be grown upContinue reading “Absolutely not quite so Fabulous Darlings”
Passing the Buck
I know it’s always been the case, but lately in chatting through how markets have done, I find myself talking as much about currency moves as asset moves. Yet in my experience, currencies never feature that much whenever we try to look ahead. The talk at that point is more around asset fundamentals like economicContinue reading “Passing the Buck”
Fancy a Coffee?
Nestle certainly does. They are set to pay $7 billion to add Starbucks’ products to its portfolio. And this is at a time when Starbucks growth rate has been on a decline since 2015. But that decline may have more to do with Starbucks than the industry overall. There’s still a whole lot of coffeeContinue reading “Fancy a Coffee?”
It’s the Politics, Stupid!
Except it’s not – really. James Carville, Bill Clinton’s campaign strategist was right, way back in 1992, when he advised that it was the economy that would drive the political outcome, and not the other way around. But for investors it’s very easy to get distracted by politics, but maybe it’s not that helpful. WeContinue reading “It’s the Politics, Stupid!”
VIX or Vicks – which is more useful?
VIX as we know is the much quoted index of stock market volatility. It’s been getting a lot of air-play of late. It’s supposed to give us a heads up on market conditions and volatility. Vicks is a widely known nasal decongestant, vapor rub etc. that’s been around for years. Which is moreContinue reading “VIX or Vicks – which is more useful?”
That gets my goat
First of all the whole goat thing and the “getting of”. They say it had to do with the practice of putting a goat in a stable with an unruly horse, and the goat would have a calming influence on the horse before a race the following day. So if the goat was stolen, theContinue reading “That gets my goat”
Is this a good time to be an Investment Manager?
I read again an interesting piece from Oliver Wyman and Morgan Stanley from earlier this year (2017) on the asset management industry, basically saying that for fund managers the world “had been turned upside down”. You know the arguments – income falling (increased competition from lower margin products, increased transparency), with costs rising (increased regulatoryContinue reading “Is this a good time to be an Investment Manager?”
Money’s too tight to mention (Simply Red 1985)
This time of year you often get called upon to write or contribute to pieces for newspapers or magazines reflecting on the investment out-turn for 2017. Papers tend to use these in those slack days between Christmas and New Year. It looks like 2017 was in fact a great year for stocks but maybeContinue reading “Money’s too tight to mention (Simply Red 1985)”
Tis the season to be……….
Here we go again. It’s that time of year. The so called festive season is nearly upon us. We may not do all the pagan rituals that marked this bleak mid-winter time in the past, but we do like the ould bit of ritual all the same it seems. Soon the TV crews will decampContinue reading “Tis the season to be……….”
Beware: stock markets could be heading for a crash
Yup that’s what the Irish Times said this morning; so it must be true. And on a Saturday morning as well – just to set the week-end off to a good start. If I was heading to my club downtown, or a dinner party in the Hamptons, it would be the subject du jour.Continue reading “Beware: stock markets could be heading for a crash”
Tradewinds 