Three years ago on this blog, I looked at Absolute Return Funds – funds that were still very much in vogue and in demand. They were the top selling fund type in 2016 and 2017 according to Investment Association figures. These funds typically offered cash plus 4% or more and the promise was that thisContinue reading “Still Absolutely Not So Fabulous”
Author Archives: Eugene Kiernan
Emerging Markets – is it over?
Emerging Markets have long played a role In investment portfolios whether pension funds or retail investors. Investing in sometimes more “exotic” markets has been seen to be a way of tapping into higher returns while diversifying away risk. Investors could have exposure to Coca-Cola bottlers in Argentina, software companies in India through to supermarkets inContinue reading “Emerging Markets – is it over?”
US Economy 2021: Fire and Ice
Where does the US Economy go from here? There are two clear views – and they are almost diametrically opposed to one another. And we are seeing the data swing from supporting one view to the other, on an almost daily basis. One view is that too much money is being pumped into the economy,Continue reading “US Economy 2021: Fire and Ice”
Fund Management – Next Steps
It’s business as usual for fund managers – in fact it’s better than usual. Recovering markets and consistent positive funds flows have pushed global industry assets under management to a new peak of €93 trillion. That’s up 11% on the previous year. Closer to home European asset managers saw their assets up 5% to overContinue reading “Fund Management – Next Steps”
Irish Financial Services – can you trust them?
You can’t go the distanceWith too much resistance Trust in Irish Banks and other financial institutions is on the floor. And the disappointing thing is that in the last two years things don’t appear to have got any better. And trust matters. A 2021 survey across 28 countries and 59,000 customers revealed trust as theContinue reading “Irish Financial Services – can you trust them?”
Asset Management and ESG: Doing Good or just a Business Opportunity?
The numbers continue to amaze. ESG (Environment/Social/Governance) seems to be everywhere in the investment world. 84% of flows into global equities in the past 2 years were into ESG funds according to one source. And there is no slackening in the pace – flows in the last 4 months of 2020 were better than the previousContinue reading “Asset Management and ESG: Doing Good or just a Business Opportunity?”
Double Dip
While we may gaze enviously at the pace of vaccine roll-outs in the UK or the US, so too might the European economy look enviously to the US at its pace of economic growth in the face of the pandemic. While economic forecasts are being revised up for the US, with some now suggesting a strongContinue reading “Double Dip”
A World Divided
The global economy has reached a fork in the road. This is the advice the IMF provided to the recent G20 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. As the world continues to climb back from the worst peace time recession since the Great Depression, the prospects and pace of any recovery are, inContinue reading “A World Divided”
Is Investment Management the Weakest Link?
In mid-2020, the Financial Times asked the question was investment management the weak link in the current economic/health crisis? The authors were thinking back to the role played by the banks in the 2008 crisis and the need to inject public money into a system which still hasn’t returned to being a growth driver. Now,Continue reading “Is Investment Management the Weakest Link?”
The End of Interest Rates
Interest rates are the policy tool of choice for Central Bankers. And until the Great Financial Crisis, they were almost the only tool investors paid any attention to. This was how Paul Volcker, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, whipped inflation out of the US economy from the early 1980’s. Setting interest rate policyContinue reading “The End of Interest Rates”
What investors are buying now
Investors ran for cover in March, as financial markets swooned in the face of the oncoming pandemic, and in some areas we saw significant selling of investment funds. As markets bounced back in April and May, we saw a full reversal of those investor outflows. The ebb and flow of economic and public health data haveContinue reading “What investors are buying now”
Visibility getting better – but companies aren’t waiting.
Company CEOs have been finding it difficult to provide guidance and clear business outlook in 2020 given the uncharted waters, but it’s been getting slightly better. Earlier in the year during the Q1 reporting season, almost 70% of US companies that normally guide analysts and the markets on what to expect, simply abandoned giving anyContinue reading “Visibility getting better – but companies aren’t waiting.”
China – 8 months on
China was the first major economy into the current pandemic and will be the only G20 economy to show positive growth this year. The OECD has just revised up its view on Chinese economic growth for 2020 to just under 2%. Their previous forecast in June was for the Chinese economy to decline by 3.7%Continue reading “China – 8 months on”
How are Asset Managers managing?
We see regular coverage of how different industries and sectors are doing during this pandemic economy. It’s obvious, for example, why airlines would be among the hardest hit as flights fall away, or why e-commerce names, such as Amazon, would benefit from the tailwind of changing consumer behaviour.Investment managers in fact seek to profit fromContinue reading “How are Asset Managers managing?”
Markets, Media and Money Trees
Every day in stock markets seems to be a tug of war between the medical facts and their implications for further lock-downs, and the sheer scale of fiscal and monetary action being announced, or in the course of being implemented. We have had the juggernaut move from mid-March when global equity markets bounced by aboutContinue reading “Markets, Media and Money Trees”
Scarred. What the Pandemic means for inequality.
The numbers amaze. Economies stopped and now as we get new data coming off such a pulverised base, the percentage growth numbers can dazzle on the upside. This can take forecasters by surprise – recent jobs numbers in the US are a good example, as are UK retail sales. Economic growth is a good thingContinue reading “Scarred. What the Pandemic means for inequality.”
Beyond GDP. Using other measures to fine tune our exit from economic lock-down.
At this point in the pandemic, what becomes very important is measuring the extent of economic revival as economies across the globe look to reopen and map any impact on the spread of the virus. Being able to measure economies is tough at the best of times but given the size of the shockContinue reading “Beyond GDP. Using other measures to fine tune our exit from economic lock-down.”
What’s going on? Forget the numbers What are CEOs saying?
So Q1 was a write-off and there is zero visibility on business outlook. But I believe there is value in looking at what CEOs, the people who actually run companies, are saying, to get a better sense of any unique or emerging trends within the downturn, and whether these trends may persist. As ofContinue reading “What’s going on? Forget the numbers What are CEOs saying?”
What markets and managers are looking at now.
In recent days, the tone in stock markets seems to have changed from the panic tumbles on high volumes that we saw in mid-March. Volatility as measured by the VIX index has also reduced though still at elevated levels, but generally we have seen less of the 5-6% moves upwards and downwards on a dailyContinue reading “What markets and managers are looking at now.”
Investing and Covid-19
Financial markets fully reflect the current and future uncertainty that society is facing. While this is first and foremost a humanitarian tragedy, it is having daily and dramatic impacts on markets, and will leave a lasting footprint on our global economy. We see violent swings in stock markets on a daily basis. Circuit breakers (whichContinue reading “Investing and Covid-19”
