Talk of the end of Globalisation seems everywhere. Tanaiste Michael Martin and Ursula Von der Leyen, European Commission President, have both spoken recently about “de-risking” our trade flows. More extreme views believe that current global trade trends point to the end of Globalisation. The Peterson Institute sees Globalisation in retreat, and in its place theyContinue reading “Globalisation – is it over? Does it matter?”
Author Archives: Eugene Kiernan
Do Investment Models Work?
Yes – until they don’t. What I’m talking about here are the models, processes, frameworks that some investment managers may use when they are allocating across the various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, property, cash, alternatives etc. The usual building blocks of such models may include factors such as valuation, economic growth, interest rates, currencies,Continue reading “Do Investment Models Work?”
Could there be a Chinese Credit Suisse?
The Great Wall of China dates from the 7th century BC and is over 20,000 km in length. It has had a profound military, economic and political impact on China. But at times of global financial crisis, China also seems to have had a financial “great wall” protecting it from contagion. China’s economy in the 80’s.Continue reading “Could there be a Chinese Credit Suisse?”
US Economy 2023: The Consumer Conundrum
The US consumer seems to be on a solid footing today. Spending volumes increased in both January and February and look to be on course for a positive year overall in 2023. Spending is clearly helped by a red hot jobs market. January saw half a million new jobs created and while that pace willContinue reading “US Economy 2023: The Consumer Conundrum”
Can Investment Managers Manage?
At times of stress, investment managers’ actions may not be in investors’ best interests. Even before the trade press headlines spoke of record fund outflows and weak financial markets combining to create a winter for the investment management industry, fund managers, both big and small were falling over themselves to cut jobs.They still are. TheContinue reading “Can Investment Managers Manage?”
Irish Fund Managers 2022 – What Worked; What Didn’t
It was a shocker! Red numbers across all significant stock markets, global bonds and most investment styles, made for very negative outcomes for most Irish investment funds in 2022.Fear of inflation followed by fear of recession, coinciding with huge geo-political risk (Russia/China) and Central Bank catch-up, made it a year of living dangerously for manyContinue reading “Irish Fund Managers 2022 – What Worked; What Didn’t”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
It was the night before ChristmasAnd all the markets were closedAll the experts and analystsWere safely home and hosed No more forecasts for the yearNi more unprecedented eventsNo more comments from Central BanksAnd wondering what the Hell they meant But all wasn’t peaceful and quietAs the snow now began to fall hardFor oft in theContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
Sustainability Faces Headwinds
Last week, European Fund Managers down-graded nearly €50 billion worth of investment funds on grounds of sustainability. In total, nearly 10% of the premium rated sustainable funds have moved their rating down a notch since early November. And these are not peripheral players. Among the fund management groups to make these moves have been Amundi,Continue reading “Sustainability Faces Headwinds”
Pension Funds and the Big Question
Three Facts This year, 830 million people will go hungry. We waste 40% of food globally. Pension Funds can help. After steadily declining for a decade, world hunger is on the rise, affecting nearly 10% of people globally. Of the 830 million going hungry, 50 million are facing absolute famine. This set-back is driven largelyContinue reading “Pension Funds and the Big Question”
Will the US economy avoid a recession?
The “R” word continues to haunt our Global Economy. Europe is facing recession in 2023 as energy costs, and indeed energy availability, are threatened by the war in Ukraine. Rishi Sunak is facing a deep recession as a £40 billion gap in the UK balance sheet needs closing. Xi Jinping’s renewed commitment this week to aContinue reading “Will the US economy avoid a recession?”
Irish Pension Funds and Property: Where to next?
The ultimate “Safe Haven”? It’s how many see Property as an investment – it’s not true of course, but it does give us a sense of where it stands on the risk spectrum. Certainly in 2022, for Irish pension funds and investors generally, Irish commercial property has played this role in what has been anContinue reading “Irish Pension Funds and Property: Where to next?”
Should Investors just forget about Emerging Markets?
It is one of the key tenets in investment. If you take on more risk, you expect more reward. It underlies why we invest in start-up businesses, new technologies, illiquid assets and much, much more. And it explains why individuals and institutions have ploughed vast sums into Emerging Markets.Emerging Markets, now taken as a givenContinue reading “Should Investors just forget about Emerging Markets?”
What’s Moving Markets?
Just what is driving global stock-markets in 2022? A stuttering start to the year, based on fears around economic growth and rising energy prices, was followed by the Ukraine war induced decline into early March. Markets then rallied from about St. Patrick’s day to the end of March only to fall more substantially byContinue reading “What’s Moving Markets?”
The Global Food Crisis and Pension Funds
We are in a global food crisis. While food prices have eased somewhat from the highs of March April, they are still 43% higher than 2020 levels (as measured by the FAO index). Though the rise is widespread, grains have been to the fore in pushing higher. In lower income countries, where food makes upContinue reading “The Global Food Crisis and Pension Funds”
Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?
As the second quarter company earnings season closes out, it provides a good window on to what’s actually happening on the ground in the US economy.Rather than listen to the economists and analysts, we can hear what the women and men who actually run companies, and have to report to shareholders, think where we areContinue reading “Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?”
Beyond the Beaches
Every evening, as the blue of the night darkens, the Paseo Maritimo, which winds its way from Marbella to Puerto Banus along the Spanish coastline, is once again thronged with locals and tourists, Spanish and international, as they stroll before or after dinner, incessantly chatting, catching up on the news of the day. The ambience isContinue reading “Beyond the Beaches”
Fund Management: What’s working – what’s not
Markets have been unforgiving in 2022. Especially in the second quarter. A pincer movement between inflation and growth has compounded the concerns about the war in Ukraine to wreak havoc on many sectors in the world’s stock markets and in investor funds. Fund managers have had quite different experiences depending on how they have beenContinue reading “Fund Management: What’s working – what’s not”
A Confluence of Calamities
It sounds like some medieval curse that the Wizard Wobegone called down upon the elves of Myrtle, in response to their kidnapping of the Princess Petrushka, but this is in fact how the IMF described the current global economic and financial market situation. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the global economy faces its biggestContinue reading “A Confluence of Calamities”
Irish Pension Funds and the War in Ukraine
As a world event, the Ukraine War is seismic, and has edged out most topics from the financial news cycle since February. The human horror and loss is evident and growing daily. It is also having a wide impact on global politics and finance. Given its role in financial markets, it is worth seeing what hasContinue reading “Irish Pension Funds and the War in Ukraine”
Ukraine War hits all key issues for Markets
The war in Ukraine, while above all a deeply sad humanitarian crisis, may impact practically every aspect of our future lives. Following on the heels of a pandemic that continues to take its toll, the war will cast a long shadow. Financial markets are one barometer of the impact beyond Ukraine’s borders. But historically, marketsContinue reading “Ukraine War hits all key issues for Markets”
Tradewinds 