Most Investment Managers acknowledge that these are tricky times for their funds and their customers. Words like “unprecedented”, “new global order” or “seismic shift” are to the fore in managers’ commentaries. And rightly so. The risk of escalation in trade wars and real wars remains a huge threat and leaves us in an environment of likelyContinue reading “How are Irish Investment Managers managing?”
Tag Archives: Market Outlook
Out of Office? Whats’s Next for Dublin Office Property?
Property investors believe (hope) that they have seen the bottom of the Irish commercial property market. And commercial property portfolios in Ireland today are still essentially driven by the performance of the office sector. I looked at the property exposure of the big institutional funds, including pension funds, and the office component of these portfoliosContinue reading “Out of Office? Whats’s Next for Dublin Office Property?”
Red Flags. Are Markets Risky Now?
Maybe it’s time for investors to be careful. The latest batch of annual outlook pieces from investment managers in the main stick to the tried and tested views of being cautiously optimistic, based on lower interest rates and still positive growth in economies. I agree we are likely to see somewhat lower interest rates and reasonable growthContinue reading “Red Flags. Are Markets Risky Now?”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
‘Twas the night before ChristmasSnow was falling and stars were brightThe economists were all tucked up in their bedsDreaming of all the forecasts they’d got right But off in the distance the silence was brokenWe heard glasses clink and saw lights flashThe music and mayhem could only mean one thingIt was the Central Bankers’ ChristmasContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
Time to add to Property in your Portfolio?
Is it time for Irish investors to look at commercial property again? BlackRock, the global investment giant, last week told its clients that the outlook for property is brightening, with falling interest rates and reduced yields in other assets. Does Ireland fit into this “brightening” picture? Portfolio allocations to the sector have been dragged downContinue reading “Time to add to Property in your Portfolio?”
Back to School! What Irish Fund Managers are saying today
2024 has been a good year so far for investors. But now, as we put away the buckets and spades and head into the home straight for the year, how do Irish investment managers see market prospects? Well, all in all, they seem to be a reasonably positive bunch. Not too concerned about recessions, expectingContinue reading “Back to School! What Irish Fund Managers are saying today”
Does Debt Matter?
The amount of debt that governments owe gets called out on a regular basis by commentators and analysts as one the key economic risks that we face. The IMF has been to the fore talking about the fiscal and financial risks of a high debt, slow growth world. In their view, higher long term interestContinue reading “Does Debt Matter?”
The Numbers Are Wrong!
For many investors in financial markets, economic data is crucial. The latest instalment on inflation, growth, or jobs, can have huge influence on market sentiment and market moves. Battalions of analysts and commentators pore over such numbers in the greatest of detail and then rush to publish their findings. But it seems that the onlyContinue reading “The Numbers Are Wrong!”
Are Investors too complacent today?
Stock markets around the world have hit record highs this year. In fact, markets have enjoyed a good run since end October last year – the US S&P index is up about 25% in that period. Principal driver was probably a benign view on where interest rates may go in 2024, coupled with a resilientContinue reading “Are Investors too complacent today?”
Why is the US economy in better shape than Europe?
Today the European Central Bank described Europe as being fragile and vulnerable. In contrast, the US Central bank spoke of broad based strength across all categories. What are the facts? Compared to the US, Europe has higher inflation, higher unemployment, weaker stock-markets and significantly lower economic growth. And the gaps aren’t marginal – unemployment in Europe isContinue reading “Why is the US economy in better shape than Europe?”
What’s Moving Markets?
Just what is driving global stock-markets in 2022? A stuttering start to the year, based on fears around economic growth and rising energy prices, was followed by the Ukraine war induced decline into early March. Markets then rallied from about St. Patrick’s day to the end of March only to fall more substantially byContinue reading “What’s Moving Markets?”
Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?
As the second quarter company earnings season closes out, it provides a good window on to what’s actually happening on the ground in the US economy.Rather than listen to the economists and analysts, we can hear what the women and men who actually run companies, and have to report to shareholders, think where we areContinue reading “Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?”
A Confluence of Calamities
It sounds like some medieval curse that the Wizard Wobegone called down upon the elves of Myrtle, in response to their kidnapping of the Princess Petrushka, but this is in fact how the IMF described the current global economic and financial market situation. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the global economy faces its biggestContinue reading “A Confluence of Calamities”
Irish Pension Funds and the War in Ukraine
As a world event, the Ukraine War is seismic, and has edged out most topics from the financial news cycle since February. The human horror and loss is evident and growing daily. It is also having a wide impact on global politics and finance. Given its role in financial markets, it is worth seeing what hasContinue reading “Irish Pension Funds and the War in Ukraine”
Ukraine War hits all key issues for Markets
The war in Ukraine, while above all a deeply sad humanitarian crisis, may impact practically every aspect of our future lives. Following on the heels of a pandemic that continues to take its toll, the war will cast a long shadow. Financial markets are one barometer of the impact beyond Ukraine’s borders. But historically, marketsContinue reading “Ukraine War hits all key issues for Markets”
Emerging Markets – is it over?
Emerging Markets have long played a role In investment portfolios whether pension funds or retail investors. Investing in sometimes more “exotic” markets has been seen to be a way of tapping into higher returns while diversifying away risk. Investors could have exposure to Coca-Cola bottlers in Argentina, software companies in India through to supermarkets inContinue reading “Emerging Markets – is it over?”
US Economy 2021: Fire and Ice
Where does the US Economy go from here? There are two clear views – and they are almost diametrically opposed to one another. And we are seeing the data swing from supporting one view to the other, on an almost daily basis. One view is that too much money is being pumped into the economy,Continue reading “US Economy 2021: Fire and Ice”
Markets, Media and Money Trees
Every day in stock markets seems to be a tug of war between the medical facts and their implications for further lock-downs, and the sheer scale of fiscal and monetary action being announced, or in the course of being implemented. We have had the juggernaut move from mid-March when global equity markets bounced by aboutContinue reading “Markets, Media and Money Trees”
What markets and managers are looking at now.
In recent days, the tone in stock markets seems to have changed from the panic tumbles on high volumes that we saw in mid-March. Volatility as measured by the VIX index has also reduced though still at elevated levels, but generally we have seen less of the 5-6% moves upwards and downwards on a dailyContinue reading “What markets and managers are looking at now.”
Dad’s Army on the outlook for Global Financial Markets
Wall Street, Davos, Walmington-on-sea – all major financial centres. We checked in with the members of the local Home Guard platoon to get their views on the near-term outlook for global financial markets. Captain Mainwaring Now look here men, I can’t tell you that it’s going to be easy. On the contrary it’s going toContinue reading “Dad’s Army on the outlook for Global Financial Markets”
Tradewinds 