So Q1 was a write-off and there is zero visibility on business outlook. But I believe there is value in looking at what CEOs, the people who actually run companies, are saying, to get a better sense of any unique or emerging trends within the downturn, and whether these trends may persist. As ofContinue reading “What’s going on? Forget the numbers What are CEOs saying?”
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Just a minute: China
October 18th 2019 China – This morning’s numbers This morning we got more key indicators on the health of the Chinese economy. The economy grew by 6% in the third quarter, which while marginally weaker than the previous quarter, was reasonably expected by markets. This was the lowest in 26 years. There was better newsContinue reading “Just a minute: China”
Contagion
Today , October 1st, we saw a battery of weak numbers from the manufacturing sectors from the US and Europe. These were the PMI’s (Purchasing Managers’ Indices) – which should give a timely and forward looking indication of the underlying health of the manufacturing base. For the US, we saw the weakest number for aContinue reading “Contagion”
Money for Nothing
Funds, fees and the future So you’re an investment manager – would you work for free? – nothing, nada, zilch, zero? Fidelity grabbed headlines recently with a zero charge on fund management – granted it was for a basic index product where fees were minimal anyway and stock lending can provide the manager with anContinue reading “Money for Nothing”
Absolutely not quite so Fabulous Darlings
Sure who wouldn’t like them? Investment funds that can deliver positive returns in any kind of market conditions at a lower level of risk. That’s broadly what Absolute Return funds say they do. (Yes I know, the managers will use phases like over a reasonbable time frame, market cycles etc. but let’s be grown upContinue reading “Absolutely not quite so Fabulous Darlings”
Fancy a Coffee?
Nestle certainly does. They are set to pay $7 billion to add Starbucks’ products to its portfolio. And this is at a time when Starbucks growth rate has been on a decline since 2015. But that decline may have more to do with Starbucks than the industry overall. There’s still a whole lot of coffeeContinue reading “Fancy a Coffee?”
It’s the Politics, Stupid!
Except it’s not – really. James Carville, Bill Clinton’s campaign strategist was right, way back in 1992, when he advised that it was the economy that would drive the political outcome, and not the other way around. But for investors it’s very easy to get distracted by politics, but maybe it’s not that helpful. WeContinue reading “It’s the Politics, Stupid!”
VIX or Vicks – which is more useful?
VIX as we know is the much quoted index of stock market volatility. It’s been getting a lot of air-play of late. It’s supposed to give us a heads up on market conditions and volatility. Vicks is a widely known nasal decongestant, vapor rub etc. that’s been around for years. Which is moreContinue reading “VIX or Vicks – which is more useful?”
That gets my goat
First of all the whole goat thing and the “getting of”. They say it had to do with the practice of putting a goat in a stable with an unruly horse, and the goat would have a calming influence on the horse before a race the following day. So if the goat was stolen, theContinue reading “That gets my goat”
Is this a good time to be an Investment Manager?
I read again an interesting piece from Oliver Wyman and Morgan Stanley from earlier this year (2017) on the asset management industry, basically saying that for fund managers the world “had been turned upside down”. You know the arguments – income falling (increased competition from lower margin products, increased transparency), with costs rising (increased regulatoryContinue reading “Is this a good time to be an Investment Manager?”
Money’s too tight to mention (Simply Red 1985)
This time of year you often get called upon to write or contribute to pieces for newspapers or magazines reflecting on the investment out-turn for 2017. Papers tend to use these in those slack days between Christmas and New Year. It looks like 2017 was in fact a great year for stocks but maybeContinue reading “Money’s too tight to mention (Simply Red 1985)”
Tis the season to be……….
Here we go again. It’s that time of year. The so called festive season is nearly upon us. We may not do all the pagan rituals that marked this bleak mid-winter time in the past, but we do like the ould bit of ritual all the same it seems. Soon the TV crews will decampContinue reading “Tis the season to be……….”
Beware: stock markets could be heading for a crash
Yup that’s what the Irish Times said this morning; so it must be true. And on a Saturday morning as well – just to set the week-end off to a good start. If I was heading to my club downtown, or a dinner party in the Hamptons, it would be the subject du jour.Continue reading “Beware: stock markets could be heading for a crash”
At least I don’t have to pretend anymore
So anyway there I was listening to Morning Ireland, and this chap, who used to be big name in the ESRI, giving their highly thought of views every quarter, garnering acres of media coverage and attention, but now he’s saying “I’m not in the forecasting business anymore so I don’t have to pretend that IContinue reading “At least I don’t have to pretend anymore”
Alan Shearer was one
It was a Sunday evening in August way back in 1993. I was stood in that cauldron of emotion, United Park, where Drogheda United were playing Blackburn Rovers in a pre-season friendly. Blackburn were on the verge of greatness at that point. The first half was scoreless, which was a very good performance from DroghedaContinue reading “Alan Shearer was one”
Penneys or Louis Vuitton?
“I don’t subscribe to labels. Unless I’m labelling other people” * I met a US Equity fund manager in Dublin last week who told me about a “once in a lifetime” opportunity for his style of investing. In fairness to him, he did say that he had been through town almost exactlyContinue reading “Penneys or Louis Vuitton?”
Dance first. Think later.
Wise words I got from a wise person and she got them from Samuel Beckett, but she dances and thinks and I struggle with both. So anyway this is a bit of a grand jete for me into a world where I probably don’t belong but you’ll have to deal with that. All my workingContinue reading “Dance first. Think later.”
Tradewinds 