Maybe the single most important question for investors. Economists discuss, debate and differ over whether or not the US economy is headed for a recession. Let’s put the theories to one side, focus less on Wall Street, and look at what’s actually happening on Main Street. Just how healthy is the US consumer? This is theContinue reading “Big Question: Has the US Consumer run out of Gas?”
Category Archives: Recession
For investors, does China matter anymore?
The South China Morning Post is worried about a recession in China. Fortune magazine speaks of a dead-end for the Chinese economy. And Bloomberg talks of China’s economic miracle fading. Chinese consumers lack confidence and the property sector’s problems seem to be intractable. It seems a far cry from the years when China was growingContinue reading “For investors, does China matter anymore?”
Will Economists do any better in 2024?
Throughout 2023, the war-cry from many economists and market experts was for an imminent recession in the US. A tightening US Central Bank was going to derail consumption and investment and knock between 2 and 3% off economic growth. A stronger dollar would undermine exports. In a Wall Street Journal survey of economists at the startContinue reading “Will Economists do any better in 2024?”
Will the US economy avoid a recession?
The “R” word continues to haunt our Global Economy. Europe is facing recession in 2023 as energy costs, and indeed energy availability, are threatened by the war in Ukraine. Rishi Sunak is facing a deep recession as a £40 billion gap in the UK balance sheet needs closing. Xi Jinping’s renewed commitment this week to aContinue reading “Will the US economy avoid a recession?”
Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?
As the second quarter company earnings season closes out, it provides a good window on to what’s actually happening on the ground in the US economy.Rather than listen to the economists and analysts, we can hear what the women and men who actually run companies, and have to report to shareholders, think where we areContinue reading “Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?”
A Confluence of Calamities
It sounds like some medieval curse that the Wizard Wobegone called down upon the elves of Myrtle, in response to their kidnapping of the Princess Petrushka, but this is in fact how the IMF described the current global economic and financial market situation. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the global economy faces its biggestContinue reading “A Confluence of Calamities”
Ukraine War hits all key issues for Markets
The war in Ukraine, while above all a deeply sad humanitarian crisis, may impact practically every aspect of our future lives. Following on the heels of a pandemic that continues to take its toll, the war will cast a long shadow. Financial markets are one barometer of the impact beyond Ukraine’s borders. But historically, marketsContinue reading “Ukraine War hits all key issues for Markets”
Double Dip
While we may gaze enviously at the pace of vaccine roll-outs in the UK or the US, so too might the European economy look enviously to the US at its pace of economic growth in the face of the pandemic. While economic forecasts are being revised up for the US, with some now suggesting a strongContinue reading “Double Dip”
A World Divided
The global economy has reached a fork in the road. This is the advice the IMF provided to the recent G20 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. As the world continues to climb back from the worst peace time recession since the Great Depression, the prospects and pace of any recovery are, inContinue reading “A World Divided”
Markets, Media and Money Trees
Every day in stock markets seems to be a tug of war between the medical facts and their implications for further lock-downs, and the sheer scale of fiscal and monetary action being announced, or in the course of being implemented. We have had the juggernaut move from mid-March when global equity markets bounced by aboutContinue reading “Markets, Media and Money Trees”
Scarred. What the Pandemic means for inequality.
The numbers amaze. Economies stopped and now as we get new data coming off such a pulverised base, the percentage growth numbers can dazzle on the upside. This can take forecasters by surprise – recent jobs numbers in the US are a good example, as are UK retail sales. Economic growth is a good thingContinue reading “Scarred. What the Pandemic means for inequality.”
Beyond GDP. Using other measures to fine tune our exit from economic lock-down.
At this point in the pandemic, what becomes very important is measuring the extent of economic revival as economies across the globe look to reopen and map any impact on the spread of the virus. Being able to measure economies is tough at the best of times but given the size of the shockContinue reading “Beyond GDP. Using other measures to fine tune our exit from economic lock-down.”
Investing and Covid-19
Financial markets fully reflect the current and future uncertainty that society is facing. While this is first and foremost a humanitarian tragedy, it is having daily and dramatic impacts on markets, and will leave a lasting footprint on our global economy. We see violent swings in stock markets on a daily basis. Circuit breakers (whichContinue reading “Investing and Covid-19”
House!
Are we looking at the wrong things in our financial market outlooks? If you’ve ever had the misfortune to play soccer at really, really low levels, say pub soccer or summer league, there may have been occasions when just as you’re setting up and steadying yourself to take that elegantly curved shot that will skimContinue reading “House!”
People to avoid at Parties No. 86 Someone who actually knows what an inverted yield curve is
Yup – it doesn’t rank as the most enthralling of topics, but there are some folks who are obsessed by it. Now if they work in the investment/economic milieu there may be an excuse for that, but if they are in the real world, it may be time to seek help. Why does itContinue reading “People to avoid at Parties No. 86 Someone who actually knows what an inverted yield curve is”
Tradewinds 