2024 has been a good year so far for investors. But now, as we put away the buckets and spades and head into the home straight for the year, how do Irish investment managers see market prospects? Well, all in all, they seem to be a reasonably positive bunch. Not too concerned about recessions, expectingContinue reading “Back to School! What Irish Fund Managers are saying today”
Category Archives: Outlook
Will Economists do any better in 2024?
Throughout 2023, the war-cry from many economists and market experts was for an imminent recession in the US. A tightening US Central Bank was going to derail consumption and investment and knock between 2 and 3% off economic growth. A stronger dollar would undermine exports. In a Wall Street Journal survey of economists at the startContinue reading “Will Economists do any better in 2024?”
Why is the US economy in better shape than Europe?
Today the European Central Bank described Europe as being fragile and vulnerable. In contrast, the US Central bank spoke of broad based strength across all categories. What are the facts? Compared to the US, Europe has higher inflation, higher unemployment, weaker stock-markets and significantly lower economic growth. And the gaps aren’t marginal – unemployment in Europe isContinue reading “Why is the US economy in better shape than Europe?”
A Confluence of Calamities
It sounds like some medieval curse that the Wizard Wobegone called down upon the elves of Myrtle, in response to their kidnapping of the Princess Petrushka, but this is in fact how the IMF described the current global economic and financial market situation. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the global economy faces its biggestContinue reading “A Confluence of Calamities”
Double Dip
While we may gaze enviously at the pace of vaccine roll-outs in the UK or the US, so too might the European economy look enviously to the US at its pace of economic growth in the face of the pandemic. While economic forecasts are being revised up for the US, with some now suggesting a strongContinue reading “Double Dip”
Visibility getting better – but companies aren’t waiting.
Company CEOs have been finding it difficult to provide guidance and clear business outlook in 2020 given the uncharted waters, but it’s been getting slightly better. Earlier in the year during the Q1 reporting season, almost 70% of US companies that normally guide analysts and the markets on what to expect, simply abandoned giving anyContinue reading “Visibility getting better – but companies aren’t waiting.”
What’s going on? Forget the numbers What are CEOs saying?
So Q1 was a write-off and there is zero visibility on business outlook. But I believe there is value in looking at what CEOs, the people who actually run companies, are saying, to get a better sense of any unique or emerging trends within the downturn, and whether these trends may persist. As ofContinue reading “What’s going on? Forget the numbers What are CEOs saying?”
What markets and managers are looking at now.
In recent days, the tone in stock markets seems to have changed from the panic tumbles on high volumes that we saw in mid-March. Volatility as measured by the VIX index has also reduced though still at elevated levels, but generally we have seen less of the 5-6% moves upwards and downwards on a dailyContinue reading “What markets and managers are looking at now.”
Investing and Covid-19
Financial markets fully reflect the current and future uncertainty that society is facing. While this is first and foremost a humanitarian tragedy, it is having daily and dramatic impacts on markets, and will leave a lasting footprint on our global economy. We see violent swings in stock markets on a daily basis. Circuit breakers (whichContinue reading “Investing and Covid-19”
When that Investment Long Term becomes just a little bit more Short Term….
Investors need to find a balance between short term and long term factors in making decisions. Focusing purely on short term factors will likely lead to over-trading, higher costs and leave fundamental investors at the mercy of high frequency strategies. All of which will ultimately haemorrhage returns. At the same time, investors do needContinue reading “When that Investment Long Term becomes just a little bit more Short Term….”
Contagion
Today , October 1st, we saw a battery of weak numbers from the manufacturing sectors from the US and Europe. These were the PMI’s (Purchasing Managers’ Indices) – which should give a timely and forward looking indication of the underlying health of the manufacturing base. For the US, we saw the weakest number for aContinue reading “Contagion”
People to avoid at Parties No. 86 Someone who actually knows what an inverted yield curve is
Yup – it doesn’t rank as the most enthralling of topics, but there are some folks who are obsessed by it. Now if they work in the investment/economic milieu there may be an excuse for that, but if they are in the real world, it may be time to seek help. Why does itContinue reading “People to avoid at Parties No. 86 Someone who actually knows what an inverted yield curve is”
Travelling and Arriving. Brexit Collateral Damage
The Brexit debate seems mired in dates and deadlines. Progress and attention span is incremental with every week seeming to be all important and then fading into memory. Red lines do little more than lose their colour. In Ireland it is never far from centre stage but even now fatigue and an October deadline haveContinue reading “Travelling and Arriving. Brexit Collateral Damage”
Dad’s Army on the outlook for Global Financial Markets
Wall Street, Davos, Walmington-on-sea – all major financial centres. We checked in with the members of the local Home Guard platoon to get their views on the near-term outlook for global financial markets. Captain Mainwaring Now look here men, I can’t tell you that it’s going to be easy. On the contrary it’s going toContinue reading “Dad’s Army on the outlook for Global Financial Markets”
The Next Big Thing
So there’s been a bit of a recovery in stock markets so far this year after a dismal December. It’s not very surprising and it does seem to lack conviction. The year so far has been marked mainly by official downgrades to global economic growth, accompanied at times by “Game of Thrones” rhetoric and headlinesContinue reading “The Next Big Thing”
Laundry List
We are smack bang in the middle of the “market outlook 2019” season. Despite the fact that economic and market fundamentals don’t really recognise the Gregorian calendar, economists, strategists, commentators et al, rush to give their views on what the next 12 months holds – usually conveniently forgetting what they may have said at theContinue reading “Laundry List”
Tradewinds 