A constant theme for investors in 2025 has been the disconnect between what’s been happening in the real world of politics and policy, and how financial markets have responded. The chaos of constant policy shifts has to date been weathered by financial markets, with stock indices not far off all-time highs. This can only beContinue reading “Markets: Uncertainty, Volatility and Risk – What’s the Story?”
Category Archives: Markets
How are Irish Investment Managers managing?
Most Investment Managers acknowledge that these are tricky times for their funds and their customers. Words like “unprecedented”, “new global order” or “seismic shift” are to the fore in managers’ commentaries. And rightly so. The risk of escalation in trade wars and real wars remains a huge threat and leaves us in an environment of likelyContinue reading “How are Irish Investment Managers managing?”
Red Flags. Are Markets Risky Now?
Maybe it’s time for investors to be careful. The latest batch of annual outlook pieces from investment managers in the main stick to the tried and tested views of being cautiously optimistic, based on lower interest rates and still positive growth in economies. I agree we are likely to see somewhat lower interest rates and reasonable growthContinue reading “Red Flags. Are Markets Risky Now?”
Big Question: Has the US Consumer run out of Gas?
Maybe the single most important question for investors. Economists discuss, debate and differ over whether or not the US economy is headed for a recession. Let’s put the theories to one side, focus less on Wall Street, and look at what’s actually happening on Main Street. Just how healthy is the US consumer? This is theContinue reading “Big Question: Has the US Consumer run out of Gas?”
The Numbers Are Wrong!
For many investors in financial markets, economic data is crucial. The latest instalment on inflation, growth, or jobs, can have huge influence on market sentiment and market moves. Battalions of analysts and commentators pore over such numbers in the greatest of detail and then rush to publish their findings. But it seems that the onlyContinue reading “The Numbers Are Wrong!”
Are Investors too complacent today?
Stock markets around the world have hit record highs this year. In fact, markets have enjoyed a good run since end October last year – the US S&P index is up about 25% in that period. Principal driver was probably a benign view on where interest rates may go in 2024, coupled with a resilientContinue reading “Are Investors too complacent today?”
Why is the US economy in better shape than Europe?
Today the European Central Bank described Europe as being fragile and vulnerable. In contrast, the US Central bank spoke of broad based strength across all categories. What are the facts? Compared to the US, Europe has higher inflation, higher unemployment, weaker stock-markets and significantly lower economic growth. And the gaps aren’t marginal – unemployment in Europe isContinue reading “Why is the US economy in better shape than Europe?”
Understanding Christine Lagarde
Central Bankers: Financial markets hang on their every word. Speeches are parsed and pored over to gain the smallest clue as to where policy may be headed. And if we’re close to a peak in interest rates, with an extended period of little change ahead of us, what Central Bankers say may matter more, thanContinue reading “Understanding Christine Lagarde”
Irish Fund Managers 2022 – What Worked; What Didn’t
It was a shocker! Red numbers across all significant stock markets, global bonds and most investment styles, made for very negative outcomes for most Irish investment funds in 2022.Fear of inflation followed by fear of recession, coinciding with huge geo-political risk (Russia/China) and Central Bank catch-up, made it a year of living dangerously for manyContinue reading “Irish Fund Managers 2022 – What Worked; What Didn’t”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
It was the night before ChristmasAnd all the markets were closedAll the experts and analystsWere safely home and hosed No more forecasts for the yearNi more unprecedented eventsNo more comments from Central BanksAnd wondering what the Hell they meant But all wasn’t peaceful and quietAs the snow now began to fall hardFor oft in theContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
Should Investors just forget about Emerging Markets?
It is one of the key tenets in investment. If you take on more risk, you expect more reward. It underlies why we invest in start-up businesses, new technologies, illiquid assets and much, much more. And it explains why individuals and institutions have ploughed vast sums into Emerging Markets.Emerging Markets, now taken as a givenContinue reading “Should Investors just forget about Emerging Markets?”
What’s Moving Markets?
Just what is driving global stock-markets in 2022? A stuttering start to the year, based on fears around economic growth and rising energy prices, was followed by the Ukraine war induced decline into early March. Markets then rallied from about St. Patrick’s day to the end of March only to fall more substantially byContinue reading “What’s Moving Markets?”
Irish Pension Funds and the War in Ukraine
As a world event, the Ukraine War is seismic, and has edged out most topics from the financial news cycle since February. The human horror and loss is evident and growing daily. It is also having a wide impact on global politics and finance. Given its role in financial markets, it is worth seeing what hasContinue reading “Irish Pension Funds and the War in Ukraine”
Ukraine War hits all key issues for Markets
The war in Ukraine, while above all a deeply sad humanitarian crisis, may impact practically every aspect of our future lives. Following on the heels of a pandemic that continues to take its toll, the war will cast a long shadow. Financial markets are one barometer of the impact beyond Ukraine’s borders. But historically, marketsContinue reading “Ukraine War hits all key issues for Markets”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party – Two
It was the night before Christmas And all the markets were calm The traders had all put their books away So really there was no cause for alarm But back in the darkened halls of the ECB And the corridors of the Federal Reserve Central Bankers, past and present, were keeping a watch To makeContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party – Two”
Emerging Markets – is it over?
Emerging Markets have long played a role In investment portfolios whether pension funds or retail investors. Investing in sometimes more “exotic” markets has been seen to be a way of tapping into higher returns while diversifying away risk. Investors could have exposure to Coca-Cola bottlers in Argentina, software companies in India through to supermarkets inContinue reading “Emerging Markets – is it over?”
What investors are buying now
Investors ran for cover in March, as financial markets swooned in the face of the oncoming pandemic, and in some areas we saw significant selling of investment funds. As markets bounced back in April and May, we saw a full reversal of those investor outflows. The ebb and flow of economic and public health data haveContinue reading “What investors are buying now”
How are Asset Managers managing?
We see regular coverage of how different industries and sectors are doing during this pandemic economy. It’s obvious, for example, why airlines would be among the hardest hit as flights fall away, or why e-commerce names, such as Amazon, would benefit from the tailwind of changing consumer behaviour.Investment managers in fact seek to profit fromContinue reading “How are Asset Managers managing?”
Markets, Media and Money Trees
Every day in stock markets seems to be a tug of war between the medical facts and their implications for further lock-downs, and the sheer scale of fiscal and monetary action being announced, or in the course of being implemented. We have had the juggernaut move from mid-March when global equity markets bounced by aboutContinue reading “Markets, Media and Money Trees”
What markets and managers are looking at now.
In recent days, the tone in stock markets seems to have changed from the panic tumbles on high volumes that we saw in mid-March. Volatility as measured by the VIX index has also reduced though still at elevated levels, but generally we have seen less of the 5-6% moves upwards and downwards on a dailyContinue reading “What markets and managers are looking at now.”
Tradewinds 