Property investors believe (hope) that they have seen the bottom of the Irish commercial property market. And commercial property portfolios in Ireland today are still essentially driven by the performance of the office sector. I looked at the property exposure of the big institutional funds, including pension funds, and the office component of these portfoliosContinue reading “Out of Office? Whats’s Next for Dublin Office Property?”
Category Archives: Interest Rates
Red Flags. Are Markets Risky Now?
Maybe it’s time for investors to be careful. The latest batch of annual outlook pieces from investment managers in the main stick to the tried and tested views of being cautiously optimistic, based on lower interest rates and still positive growth in economies. I agree we are likely to see somewhat lower interest rates and reasonable growthContinue reading “Red Flags. Are Markets Risky Now?”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
‘Twas the night before ChristmasSnow was falling and stars were brightThe economists were all tucked up in their bedsDreaming of all the forecasts they’d got right But off in the distance the silence was brokenWe heard glasses clink and saw lights flashThe music and mayhem could only mean one thingIt was the Central Bankers’ ChristmasContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
Does Debt Matter?
The amount of debt that governments owe gets called out on a regular basis by commentators and analysts as one the key economic risks that we face. The IMF has been to the fore talking about the fiscal and financial risks of a high debt, slow growth world. In their view, higher long term interestContinue reading “Does Debt Matter?”
The Numbers Are Wrong!
For many investors in financial markets, economic data is crucial. The latest instalment on inflation, growth, or jobs, can have huge influence on market sentiment and market moves. Battalions of analysts and commentators pore over such numbers in the greatest of detail and then rush to publish their findings. But it seems that the onlyContinue reading “The Numbers Are Wrong!”
Will Economists do any better in 2024?
Throughout 2023, the war-cry from many economists and market experts was for an imminent recession in the US. A tightening US Central Bank was going to derail consumption and investment and knock between 2 and 3% off economic growth. A stronger dollar would undermine exports. In a Wall Street Journal survey of economists at the startContinue reading “Will Economists do any better in 2024?”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
‘Twas the night before ChristmasAnd all the markets were closed.Dealers all snuggled up in their bedsNo asset positions left exposed. But soft in the distance, the bells rang outAnd cherubs sang hale and heartyCoz after another year of decision makingThis was the night of the Central Bankers’ Christmas Party. The biggest night for governors pastContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
Understanding Christine Lagarde
Central Bankers: Financial markets hang on their every word. Speeches are parsed and pored over to gain the smallest clue as to where policy may be headed. And if we’re close to a peak in interest rates, with an extended period of little change ahead of us, what Central Bankers say may matter more, thanContinue reading “Understanding Christine Lagarde”
The next crisis will start with empty office buildings
The above headline ran in the Atlantic magazine last week in the US. Also, the Financial Times speaks of a “financial storm” bearing down on the US commercial property market. Many analysts are talking of commercial property as the biggest systemic risk in the US today and being the next shoe to drop. Is thereContinue reading “The next crisis will start with empty office buildings”
Do Investment Models Work?
Yes – until they don’t. What I’m talking about here are the models, processes, frameworks that some investment managers may use when they are allocating across the various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, property, cash, alternatives etc. The usual building blocks of such models may include factors such as valuation, economic growth, interest rates, currencies,Continue reading “Do Investment Models Work?”
US Economy 2023: The Consumer Conundrum
The US consumer seems to be on a solid footing today. Spending volumes increased in both January and February and look to be on course for a positive year overall in 2023. Spending is clearly helped by a red hot jobs market. January saw half a million new jobs created and while that pace willContinue reading “US Economy 2023: The Consumer Conundrum”
Will the US economy avoid a recession?
The “R” word continues to haunt our Global Economy. Europe is facing recession in 2023 as energy costs, and indeed energy availability, are threatened by the war in Ukraine. Rishi Sunak is facing a deep recession as a £40 billion gap in the UK balance sheet needs closing. Xi Jinping’s renewed commitment this week to aContinue reading “Will the US economy avoid a recession?”
What’s Moving Markets?
Just what is driving global stock-markets in 2022? A stuttering start to the year, based on fears around economic growth and rising energy prices, was followed by the Ukraine war induced decline into early March. Markets then rallied from about St. Patrick’s day to the end of March only to fall more substantially byContinue reading “What’s Moving Markets?”
Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?
As the second quarter company earnings season closes out, it provides a good window on to what’s actually happening on the ground in the US economy.Rather than listen to the economists and analysts, we can hear what the women and men who actually run companies, and have to report to shareholders, think where we areContinue reading “Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?”
A Confluence of Calamities
It sounds like some medieval curse that the Wizard Wobegone called down upon the elves of Myrtle, in response to their kidnapping of the Princess Petrushka, but this is in fact how the IMF described the current global economic and financial market situation. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the global economy faces its biggestContinue reading “A Confluence of Calamities”
Currencies – the Next Stop for Volatility?
Volatility is on the up in asset classes like stocks and bonds, as governments and central banks around the globe look for an exit strategy from highly supportive pandemic policies. US bond volatility (as measured by the options market index) has practically doubled in the past 4 months and stock markets have been displaying heightened volatilityContinue reading “Currencies – the Next Stop for Volatility?”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party – Two
It was the night before Christmas And all the markets were calm The traders had all put their books away So really there was no cause for alarm But back in the darkened halls of the ECB And the corridors of the Federal Reserve Central Bankers, past and present, were keeping a watch To makeContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party – Two”
Language Lessons
It has been the economic surprise of 2021 and there are still voices on both sides of the argument. Inflation has taken off as a concern for investors, consumers, producers and policy makers. The most recent number to grab headlines in the US was a staggering 6.2% – the largest since 1990. At the startContinue reading “Language Lessons”
US Economy 2021: Fire and Ice
Where does the US Economy go from here? There are two clear views – and they are almost diametrically opposed to one another. And we are seeing the data swing from supporting one view to the other, on an almost daily basis. One view is that too much money is being pumped into the economy,Continue reading “US Economy 2021: Fire and Ice”
The End of Interest Rates
Interest rates are the policy tool of choice for Central Bankers. And until the Great Financial Crisis, they were almost the only tool investors paid any attention to. This was how Paul Volcker, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, whipped inflation out of the US economy from the early 1980’s. Setting interest rate policyContinue reading “The End of Interest Rates”
Tradewinds 