The US consumer seems to be on a solid footing today. Spending volumes increased in both January and February and look to be on course for a positive year overall in 2023. Spending is clearly helped by a red hot jobs market. January saw half a million new jobs created and while that pace willContinue reading “US Economy 2023: The Consumer Conundrum”
Category Archives: Earnings
Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?
As the second quarter company earnings season closes out, it provides a good window on to what’s actually happening on the ground in the US economy.Rather than listen to the economists and analysts, we can hear what the women and men who actually run companies, and have to report to shareholders, think where we areContinue reading “Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?”
US Economy 2021: Fire and Ice
Where does the US Economy go from here? There are two clear views – and they are almost diametrically opposed to one another. And we are seeing the data swing from supporting one view to the other, on an almost daily basis. One view is that too much money is being pumped into the economy,Continue reading “US Economy 2021: Fire and Ice”
Visibility getting better – but companies aren’t waiting.
Company CEOs have been finding it difficult to provide guidance and clear business outlook in 2020 given the uncharted waters, but it’s been getting slightly better. Earlier in the year during the Q1 reporting season, almost 70% of US companies that normally guide analysts and the markets on what to expect, simply abandoned giving anyContinue reading “Visibility getting better – but companies aren’t waiting.”
What’s going on? Forget the numbers What are CEOs saying?
So Q1 was a write-off and there is zero visibility on business outlook. But I believe there is value in looking at what CEOs, the people who actually run companies, are saying, to get a better sense of any unique or emerging trends within the downturn, and whether these trends may persist. As ofContinue reading “What’s going on? Forget the numbers What are CEOs saying?”
What markets and managers are looking at now.
In recent days, the tone in stock markets seems to have changed from the panic tumbles on high volumes that we saw in mid-March. Volatility as measured by the VIX index has also reduced though still at elevated levels, but generally we have seen less of the 5-6% moves upwards and downwards on a dailyContinue reading “What markets and managers are looking at now.”
The Next Big Thing
So there’s been a bit of a recovery in stock markets so far this year after a dismal December. It’s not very surprising and it does seem to lack conviction. The year so far has been marked mainly by official downgrades to global economic growth, accompanied at times by “Game of Thrones” rhetoric and headlinesContinue reading “The Next Big Thing”
Tradewinds 