As the second quarter company earnings season closes out, it provides a good window on to what’s actually happening on the ground in the US economy.Rather than listen to the economists and analysts, we can hear what the women and men who actually run companies, and have to report to shareholders, think where we areContinue reading “Forget the economists – what they are saying on the Street?”
Category Archives: Central Banks
A Confluence of Calamities
It sounds like some medieval curse that the Wizard Wobegone called down upon the elves of Myrtle, in response to their kidnapping of the Princess Petrushka, but this is in fact how the IMF described the current global economic and financial market situation. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the global economy faces its biggestContinue reading “A Confluence of Calamities”
Currencies – the Next Stop for Volatility?
Volatility is on the up in asset classes like stocks and bonds, as governments and central banks around the globe look for an exit strategy from highly supportive pandemic policies. US bond volatility (as measured by the options market index) has practically doubled in the past 4 months and stock markets have been displaying heightened volatilityContinue reading “Currencies – the Next Stop for Volatility?”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party – Two
It was the night before Christmas And all the markets were calm The traders had all put their books away So really there was no cause for alarm But back in the darkened halls of the ECB And the corridors of the Federal Reserve Central Bankers, past and present, were keeping a watch To makeContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party – Two”
Language Lessons
It has been the economic surprise of 2021 and there are still voices on both sides of the argument. Inflation has taken off as a concern for investors, consumers, producers and policy makers. The most recent number to grab headlines in the US was a staggering 6.2% – the largest since 1990. At the startContinue reading “Language Lessons”
US Economy 2021: Fire and Ice
Where does the US Economy go from here? There are two clear views – and they are almost diametrically opposed to one another. And we are seeing the data swing from supporting one view to the other, on an almost daily basis. One view is that too much money is being pumped into the economy,Continue reading “US Economy 2021: Fire and Ice”
Irish Financial Services – can you trust them?
You can’t go the distanceWith too much resistance Trust in Irish Banks and other financial institutions is on the floor. And the disappointing thing is that in the last two years things don’t appear to have got any better. And trust matters. A 2021 survey across 28 countries and 59,000 customers revealed trust as theContinue reading “Irish Financial Services – can you trust them?”
Asset Management and ESG: Doing Good or just a Business Opportunity?
The numbers continue to amaze. ESG (Environment/Social/Governance) seems to be everywhere in the investment world. 84% of flows into global equities in the past 2 years were into ESG funds according to one source. And there is no slackening in the pace – flows in the last 4 months of 2020 were better than the previousContinue reading “Asset Management and ESG: Doing Good or just a Business Opportunity?”
A World Divided
The global economy has reached a fork in the road. This is the advice the IMF provided to the recent G20 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. As the world continues to climb back from the worst peace time recession since the Great Depression, the prospects and pace of any recovery are, inContinue reading “A World Divided”
The End of Interest Rates
Interest rates are the policy tool of choice for Central Bankers. And until the Great Financial Crisis, they were almost the only tool investors paid any attention to. This was how Paul Volcker, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, whipped inflation out of the US economy from the early 1980’s. Setting interest rate policyContinue reading “The End of Interest Rates”
What markets and managers are looking at now.
In recent days, the tone in stock markets seems to have changed from the panic tumbles on high volumes that we saw in mid-March. Volatility as measured by the VIX index has also reduced though still at elevated levels, but generally we have seen less of the 5-6% moves upwards and downwards on a dailyContinue reading “What markets and managers are looking at now.”
Investing and Covid-19
Financial markets fully reflect the current and future uncertainty that society is facing. While this is first and foremost a humanitarian tragedy, it is having daily and dramatic impacts on markets, and will leave a lasting footprint on our global economy. We see violent swings in stock markets on a daily basis. Circuit breakers (whichContinue reading “Investing and Covid-19”
House!
Are we looking at the wrong things in our financial market outlooks? If you’ve ever had the misfortune to play soccer at really, really low levels, say pub soccer or summer league, there may have been occasions when just as you’re setting up and steadying yourself to take that elegantly curved shot that will skimContinue reading “House!”
Investment Management – the Next Ten Years
Asset Management – the next 10 years What will asset management look like in 10 years-time? Well despite the headlines you may read, what it won’t look like is – One global player using an Artificial Intelligence driven algorithm to invest passively on a rigorous ESG basis and doing it all for nothing. Change inContinue reading “Investment Management – the Next Ten Years”
Culture in Asset Management – the “Must Haves” and the “Great to Haves”!
Culture is now a Red Button issue in Irish financial services, from banking to insurance through to asset management. Recently, we have seen the setting up of the Irish Banking Culture Board to remedy cultural shortfalls in the banking sector. The Central Bank of Ireland has raised the issue of culture for asset managers repeatedly,Continue reading “Culture in Asset Management – the “Must Haves” and the “Great to Haves”!”
People to avoid at Parties No. 86 Someone who actually knows what an inverted yield curve is
Yup – it doesn’t rank as the most enthralling of topics, but there are some folks who are obsessed by it. Now if they work in the investment/economic milieu there may be an excuse for that, but if they are in the real world, it may be time to seek help. Why does itContinue reading “People to avoid at Parties No. 86 Someone who actually knows what an inverted yield curve is”
Dad’s Army on the outlook for Global Financial Markets
Wall Street, Davos, Walmington-on-sea – all major financial centres. We checked in with the members of the local Home Guard platoon to get their views on the near-term outlook for global financial markets. Captain Mainwaring Now look here men, I can’t tell you that it’s going to be easy. On the contrary it’s going toContinue reading “Dad’s Army on the outlook for Global Financial Markets”
Fund Managers – Brave New World
2018 was a tough year for fund managers. Markets were unforgiving and saved a lot of the angst for the last month of the year. Performance suffered and what the Financial Times labels “flowmaggedon” , where we saw very hefty outflows from funds across a wide range of asset, combined to hit the P&L accountsContinue reading “Fund Managers – Brave New World”
The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party
‘Twas the night before Christmas And all through the Central Bankers’ house The governors were snuggled up and fast asleep With no more interest rates left to announce The up piped young Mark Carney “This is all too quiet, I say Let’s have a Central Bankers’ party For tomorrow is Christmas Day!” SoContinue reading “The Central Bankers’ Christmas Party”
Tradewinds 