Author Archives: Eugene Kiernan

Scarred. What the Pandemic means for inequality.

The numbers amaze. Economies stopped and now as we get new data coming off such a pulverised base, the percentage growth numbers can dazzle on the upside. This can take forecasters by surprise – recent jobs numbers in the US are a good example, as are UK retail sales. Economic growth is a good thingContinue reading “Scarred. What the Pandemic means for inequality.”

Beyond GDP. Using other measures to fine tune our exit from economic lock-down.

  At this point in the pandemic, what becomes very important is measuring the extent of economic revival as economies across the globe look to reopen and map any impact on the spread of the virus. Being able to measure economies is tough at the best of times but given the size of the shockContinue reading “Beyond GDP. Using other measures to fine tune our exit from economic lock-down.”

What’s going on? Forget the numbers What are CEOs saying?

  So Q1 was a write-off and there is zero visibility on business outlook. But I believe there is value in looking at what CEOs, the people who actually run companies, are saying, to get a better sense of any unique or emerging trends within the downturn, and whether these trends may persist. As ofContinue reading “What’s going on? Forget the numbers What are CEOs saying?”

What markets and managers are looking at now.

In recent days, the tone in stock markets seems to have changed from the panic tumbles on high volumes that we saw in mid-March. Volatility as measured by the VIX index has also reduced though still at elevated levels, but generally we have seen less of the 5-6% moves upwards and downwards on a dailyContinue reading “What markets and managers are looking at now.”

Investing and Covid-19

Financial markets fully reflect the current and future uncertainty that society is facing. While this is first and foremost a humanitarian tragedy, it is having daily and dramatic impacts on markets, and will leave a lasting footprint on our global economy. We see violent swings in stock markets on a daily basis. Circuit breakers (whichContinue reading “Investing and Covid-19”

What’s all this Diversity carry-on…..?

  Prove it. That seems to be a mantra among those who struggle a bit with the seismic shift we are seeing today in the role of Environmental Social and Governance factors (ESG) in asset management. For issues such as climate change or global warming which may not be observable, up close and personal, inContinue reading “What’s all this Diversity carry-on…..?”

Is it time to fire your fund manager?

It may be the most important decision faced by all investors be they pension trustees, family offices, multi-managers or individuals – and it’s a lot riskier than you might think. There are a range of scenarios where the trigger will need to be pulled and some are quite straight-forward. Trust: This is a key featureContinue reading “Is it time to fire your fund manager?”

House!

Are we looking at the wrong things in our financial market outlooks? If you’ve ever had the misfortune to play soccer at really, really low levels, say pub soccer or summer league, there may have been occasions when just as you’re setting up and steadying yourself to take that elegantly curved shot that will skimContinue reading “House!”

Investment Management – the Next Ten Years

Asset Management – the next 10 years What will asset management look like in 10 years-time? Well despite the headlines you may read, what it won’t look like is – One global player using an Artificial Intelligence driven algorithm to invest passively on a rigorous ESG basis and doing it all for nothing. Change inContinue reading “Investment Management – the Next Ten Years”

Five Questions NOT to ask a fund manager

Are you personally invested in the fund? This is usually to get some sense of “skin in the game”, but it’s too easy, and really not that important. The fund manager can answer yes; even if it’s just a small part of a company-wide incentive scheme , that invests in the fund, with a 2Continue reading “Five Questions NOT to ask a fund manager”

When that Investment Long Term becomes just a little bit more Short Term….

  Investors need to find a balance between short term and long term factors in making decisions. Focusing purely on short term factors will likely lead to over-trading, higher costs and leave fundamental investors at the mercy of high frequency strategies. All of which will ultimately haemorrhage returns. At the same time, investors do needContinue reading “When that Investment Long Term becomes just a little bit more Short Term….”

Just a minute: China

October 18th 2019 China – This morning’s numbers This morning we got more key indicators on the health of the Chinese economy. The economy grew by 6% in the third quarter, which while marginally weaker than the previous quarter, was reasonably expected by markets. This was the lowest in 26 years. There was better newsContinue reading “Just a minute: China”

Contagion

Today , October 1st, we saw a battery of weak numbers from the manufacturing sectors from the US and Europe. These were the PMI’s (Purchasing Managers’ Indices) – which should give a timely and forward looking indication of the underlying health of the manufacturing base. For the US, we saw the weakest number for aContinue reading “Contagion”

Culture in Asset Management – the “Must Haves” and the “Great to Haves”!

Culture is now a Red Button issue in Irish financial services, from banking to insurance through to asset management. Recently, we have seen the setting up of the Irish Banking Culture Board to remedy cultural shortfalls in the banking sector. The Central Bank of Ireland has raised the issue of culture for asset managers repeatedly,Continue reading “Culture in Asset Management – the “Must Haves” and the “Great to Haves”!”

ESG: Stop! Look Listen

ESG investing (i.e. incorporating environmental, social and governance factors in investment decision making)  seems to be everywhere. FTfm every week is guaranteed to have at least two pieces on it! Most asset managers will include an ESG option in their product range. Most investment conferences have an almost obligatory ESG session. There is largescale lobbyingContinue reading “ESG: Stop! Look Listen”

The Boys are back in Town!

Dateline: September 23rd 2019 The Boys are Back in Town Last week’s batch of data from the US and Eurozone economies did little to clear the fog around near-term direction. Business confidence remains especially low. One thing is clear though – Central Banks are centre stage – again. Members of the US Federal Reserve saidContinue reading “The Boys are back in Town!”

People to avoid at Parties No. 86 Someone who actually knows what an inverted yield curve is

Yup – it doesn’t rank as the most enthralling of topics, but there are some folks who are obsessed by it. Now if they work in the investment/economic milieu there may be an excuse for that, but if they are in the real world, it may be time to seek help.   Why does itContinue reading “People to avoid at Parties No. 86 Someone who actually knows what an inverted yield curve is”

“Neeeaaaoorgheee!”

Tommy Tiernan has a brilliant piece where he discusses the global debt situation. It’s not a typical topic in stand-up comedy and well worth a look on YouTube.   https://youtu.be/E8DfCzOS1lE   He says we all owe – Germany owes billions of gazzillions, while England owes trillions of willions of billions and as for the USContinue reading ““Neeeaaaoorgheee!””